I'm feeling slightly better today, I decided to try and be at the COP. It's silly to be here for 2 weeks when nothing happens and miss the crucial meetings. The bridge to Copenhagen closed at 7:30 for security reasons, we had our delegation brief at 6:30. It was still snowing in Malmo.
The negotiations have been paralyzed by cross-vetos on mitigation targets and financial matters. The developing countries have also lamented their almost complete exclusion from the drafting of the most significant documents, which have been written by around 50 "most important" countries and then opened for discussion to the whole assembly. Still, in the last hours the situation has evolved a bit:
- US' proposal to finance developing countries every year with US$50b by 2015 and with US$100b by 2020 is at least a first step to fulfill the developing countries' economic requests. It is still significantly less than the estimates for the long-term finance, but is a concrete measure to provide a substantial amount of money in the mid-term. It looks like the other developed countries will agree as well. Criteria and mechanisms of distribution still have to be discussed. Tuvalu has spoken against this proposal. A nation without territory won't be able to do much with more money.
- China has started opening to the possibility of accepting an external MRV system, which had been set as a condition by developed countries to take any financial commitment as well as to accept the developing countries mitigation measures.
- Australia has been trying to put pressure on Tuvalu and AOSIS to agree on the 2°C target. Apparently, nothing's gonna be decided on actual mitigation numbers. A possible compromise could be to go for a 2°C target, with the idea of periodically reviewing it with new scientific evidence. Fact is that scientific evidence proving the high risks which the 2°C target implies already exists.
- OPEC countries look like they were subtly trying to sabotage the talks, using a series of procedural issues to make the debate slower. Their aim is obviously to avoid the cut on fossil fuel use. To sound credible, they are strongly pushing for Carbon Storage and Sequestration technologies. Basically we would keep producing the same amount of CO2, bury it underground, seal the hole, and hope it never comes out again.
- According to Climate Action Tracker, current emission reduction pledges would lead to an average increase of 3,5°C by 2100, with greenhouse gas concentrations close to 800 ppm.
- Obama's arrived in Copenhagen. Everybody's secretly expecting a miracle.
- We are waiting for the last plenary to start.
NGOs have been excluded from the Bella Centre, with the exception of 300 representatives who will be able to attend the plenary. Even the rationale of such a measure is understandable (security, space, silence), even if the delegates are working incredibly hard to agree on something satisfactory, and even if the NGOs have had 2 weeks to advocate for their positions, it is still disappointing not to see that crowd around. The fact that every country be represented by its more or less democratically elected government poses a big problem in terms of how well the civil society is actually represented in the negotiations. I personally feel much closer to the position of the President of a Pacific island State than by those of my own national Government, that has tried in the past years to renegotiate the EU 2020 targets. I don't remember having had any single adequate option at the last elections. Moreover, we are leaving outside organizations such as WWF, which are supported by a network of millions of volunteers, and are all spasmodically waiting for the epiphany of a politician elected by 1/5 of the Americans. It is disappointing, indeed.
No comments:
Post a Comment