l'asino in mezzo ai suoni

We all are much more uncompromising to the people we really know.

habemus favam/2

So there's an agreement. But it's not a good one, and, in fact, is not an agreement at all. The COP, for the time being, "takes note" of it as a "draft decision". An elegant way to say that there is no consensus on what has been decided. The bolivarian nations, some island developing states and least developed countries didn't approve it.

What happened is that after 2 years of more or less open negotiations among all countries, the dialogue was stuck. Poor countries wanted industrialized ones to make the first move, reducing their emissions and financing mitigation and adaptation in the rest of the world. Rich countries wanted poor ones to start reducing their emissions as well before they committed to anything else.

Then comes Obama, and has a few hours long meeting with leaders from 4 developing countries who mostly care about being given the opportunity to keep their emissions uncontrolled for some more years, in order to further grow along the usual path, and makes them an offer they can't refuse. He promises US$ 100b per year as of 2020 for mitigation and adaptation in developing countries with the condition that they accept to commit to some form of mitigation actions, verified by some kind of international monitoring system.

To avoid the worst effects of climate change we needed:

- to limit average temperature increase by way less than 2°C (probably 1,5°C)

- to limit CO2 concentration in the atmosphere way below 450ppm (according to some to 350 ppm)

- to peak emissions no later than 2015

- reduce emissions in developed countries by at least 40% by 2020

- reduce emissions in developed countries by at least 80% by 2050

There's no mention of any of these goals as binding. In fact, nothing has been decided in detail at all:

- By February, all countries who have agreed will have to submit their emission reduction commitments, but they won't have to do so in a strong framework built having in mind the aggregate limits. Everyone will do what he can. And what they have showed to be willing to do is way not enough (the current scenario leads to a +3,5°C by 2050).

- There's no real agreement on what the monitoring system will look like - this is yet to be decided.

- There's no way to enforce even the targets the countries have voluntarily committed to.

This "agreement" is a step back if compared with the Kyoto Protocol. The absence of legally binding targets makes it quite useless. And it is a step back because it hasn't been produced through democratic consultations, but in a closed meeting everybody knew was happening. But, at least, it involves China, US and India (who account together for around 55% of the global emissions). EU and other developed ones will jump in as well, which will cover the great majority of the world's emissions. It is a first step and will need further improvements, new commitments, a new series of talks to be completed. US, for example, will be able to come with their new targets, when the internal iter of their Bill will be concluded. It hasn't killed the Kyoto Protocol yet, but could be considered a first decision on the type of model a new climate agreement should have. It will leave space for the discussion of the more general targets, and possibly for the adoption of an ambitious 1,5°C limit.

But it's not really deciding anything. It is a deal that will require a new deal, hopefully in the next 6 to 12 months. And this is the problem. The real losers, with this no-agreement, are the countries that are already suffering the impacts of climate change, that will experience more frequent and more severe problems, and will not really be able to solve them with more mid-term money.

habemus favam

Il Vaticano si impegna ad azzerare le proprie emissioni. Niente di speciale per un paese che produce giusto un po' di fumo bianco ogni morte di papa.

last day?/2

US-China bilateral meetings going on since the last post. Apparently a couple new drafts are out. It looks like the two have almost agreed on a global long-term emission reduction target of 50% by 2050 (80% less for developed countries, 15-30% less for developing ones), on finance, and maybe on MRV (China still wants to perform domestic MRV, but would be ready to open its results to the international community and to give required explanations if needed). They are also thinking of reviewing the agreement in 2016 to consider a 1,5°C limit. But there's no mention of anything legally binding nor a roadmap to obtain it next year.

A draft decision on the mechanism to reduce emissions from deforestation in developing countries (REDD+) is being presented. It basically is a system to pay countries that avoid deforestation, and apparently it will also allow the financing of the conservation, sustainable management, and enhancement of forests.

In addition:

- Since no flight seems to be allowed in a one-hour radius from Air Force One, and since Obama was closed in a room with Wen Jiabao and nobody really knew when he would come out, passengers flying from Copenhagen have been precautionary locked in their airplanes for hours, until somebody graciously pointed out the meetings were going to take the whole afternoon.

- In the meanwhile Obama will meet with Medvedev to discuss nuclear arms control. You know, to take some time off.

- Yesterday the local hot dog seller sold 1100 dogs. (via)

- Enormous success of "the dogs in my life". Tired diplomats come resting on our sofa. All of them give a quick look to the tome (hardcover, glossy paper, 200+ pp). All of them find comfort in the wise words of the Supreme Master's 6 pets.

- People are sleeping in average 3 hours per night. As a consequence, they tend to fall asleep anywhere, doing any kind of activity. Mostly reading or watching the plenary broadcast on the screen. People reading "the dogs in my life" do not fall asleep. Thy grow tired of the book first.

- The Tuvalu delegate always has a papillon. It is kind of appropriate.

last day?/1

Big people speaking. Wen Jiabao, Lula, Obama, Barroso, Morales, Chavez and others. Nothing really new. Every leader pointing out its good will and good deeds, nobody really wanting to move any further. Everybody else getting more depressed with every speech.

- Developing countries insist with the Kyoto Protocol, the Bali Road Map, the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, based on the fact that industrialized countries have had centuries to pollute without constraints, their need to be able to freely pursue economic growth. They will not commit to mitigation measure that could undermine their possibility of pursuing poverty reduction, but have all already announced some kind of voluntary targets, and are in general ready to increase them, should a serious agreement be reached. Brazil even promised to participate in the financing of least developed countries' activities. They still oppose external MRV systems.

- The US think an agreement will be reachable if all major economies take strong actions to reduce their emissions, a credible monitoring system is put in place and sufficient funding is raised to finance developing countries.

- EU stresses the fact that is now up to US and China (who emit together half of the world's greenhouse gases) to do something, EU has already committed to the most significant cut among developed countries.

As of now, it seems that if an agreement will be produced, it will only be a loose political statement, with (maybe) some decision on relatively complementary matters. There are still some important negotiations open, and something could still happen, but it's almost impossible to envisage that a comprehensive deal will be reached.

Highlights:

- Lula: "too many issues are still unsolved and the negotiations look more like the kind of bargaining I used to do when I worked in trade unions than a meeting of Heads of State"

- Lula/2: "although I believe in God, therefore in miracles, there's no way a single man can intervene and fix what has not been built in 2 years of negotiations"

- Obama comes in from a side door just before his speech, delivers it, goes out again immediately after. All other presidents, premiers, ministers sit normally at their delegation desks.

- Chavez/0: Luckily he came last. It's 14:15, he must be hungry, his speech is shorter than usual, but full of real pearls.

- Chavez/1: Obama uses the small door like a yankee emperor. He comes in, he goes out, then he's going to slip a text under that same door.

- Chavez/2: Introducing his driver - Thomas.

- Chavez/3: Obama is the nobel prize for war.

- Chavez/4: the fault lies with the capital.

- Chavez/5: after having delivered his speech, he leaves the conference (together with Morales).

Now it's up to the observers. Such a shame that they are speaking to an empty plenary. Everybody's having lunch.

about us, without us

I'm feeling slightly better today, I decided to try and be at the COP. It's silly to be here for 2 weeks when nothing happens and miss the crucial meetings. The bridge to Copenhagen closed at 7:30 for security reasons, we had our delegation brief at 6:30. It was still snowing in Malmo.

The negotiations have been paralyzed by cross-vetos on mitigation targets and financial matters. The developing countries have also lamented their almost complete exclusion from the drafting of the most significant documents, which have been written by around 50 "most important" countries and then opened for discussion to the whole assembly. Still, in the last hours the situation has evolved a bit:

- US' proposal to finance developing countries every year with US$50b by 2015 and with US$100b by 2020 is at least a first step to fulfill the developing countries' economic requests. It is still significantly less than the estimates for the long-term finance, but is a concrete measure to provide a substantial amount of money in the mid-term. It looks like the other developed countries will agree as well. Criteria and mechanisms of distribution still have to be discussed. Tuvalu has spoken against this proposal. A nation without territory won't be able to do much with more money.

- China has started opening to the possibility of accepting an external MRV system, which had been set as a condition by developed countries to take any financial commitment as well as to accept the developing countries mitigation measures.

- Australia has been trying to put pressure on Tuvalu and AOSIS to agree on the 2°C target. Apparently, nothing's gonna be decided on actual mitigation numbers. A possible compromise could be to go for a 2°C target, with the idea of periodically reviewing it with new scientific evidence. Fact is that scientific evidence proving the high risks which the 2°C target implies already exists.

- OPEC countries look like they were subtly trying to sabotage the talks, using a series of procedural issues to make the debate slower. Their aim is obviously to avoid the cut on fossil fuel use. To sound credible, they are strongly pushing for Carbon Storage and Sequestration technologies. Basically we would keep producing the same amount of CO2, bury it underground, seal the hole, and hope it never comes out again.

- According to Climate Action Tracker, current emission reduction pledges would lead to an average increase of 3,5°C by 2100, with greenhouse gas concentrations close to 800 ppm.

- Obama's arrived in Copenhagen. Everybody's secretly expecting a miracle.

- We are waiting for the last plenary to start.

NGOs have been excluded from the Bella Centre, with the exception of 300 representatives who will be able to attend the plenary. Even the rationale of such a measure is understandable (security, space, silence), even if the delegates are working incredibly hard to agree on something satisfactory, and even if the NGOs have had 2 weeks to advocate for their positions, it is still disappointing not to see that crowd around. The fact that every country be represented by its more or less democratically elected government poses a big problem in terms of how well the civil society is actually represented in the negotiations. I personally feel much closer to the position of the President of a Pacific island State than by those of my own national Government, that has tried in the past years to renegotiate the EU 2020 targets. I don't remember having had any single adequate option at the last elections. Moreover, we are leaving outside organizations such as WWF, which are supported by a network of millions of volunteers, and are all spasmodically waiting for the epiphany of a politician elected by 1/5 of the Americans. It is disappointing, indeed.

my understanding - the big picture

I'm still sick. I'm not going to the delegation brief every morning, and I'm not aware of what is really going on at the conference. Anyway, Malmo outside is white and it looks like nothing is really going to happen anyway. The following is what it looked like few days ago.

- AOSIS (Alliance of Small Island States) wants a new commitment period for the countries that were had to reduce their emissions according to the Kyoto Protocol (basically the developed countries - Annex-1 countries), with new and more incisive commitments (40% less than 1990 emission levels by 2020). AOSIS is also pushing for the definition of a "Copenhagen Agreement" which would define significant and quantifiable mitigation actions for all the other countries. LDCs (Least Developed Countries), and many developing countries are supporting this proposal. 11 "climate-vulnerable" countries have even committed to pursue carbon neutrality.

- The G77 and China (which include most of the developing countries plus, well, China) want to keep the Kyoto Protocol, with a new commitment period for Annex-1 countries, with ambitious targets, without adding a second agreement to set commitments for developing ones. This position is now only fully supported by the BASIC group (Brazil, India, China, South Africa), by most of the OPEC countries, and by those G77 countries who haven't come closer to AOSIS' position.

- USA, Canada and Australia (part of the Umbrella Group - which also includes Norway, Japan, Russia) basically want to kill the Kyoto Protocol and set up a totally new regime based on mitigation actions by all countries (developed and developing), without global predefined targets, but with a strong MRV (Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification) system to ensure that countries actually respect what they have committed to.

- The EU is quite in an ambiguous situation. They didn't seem enthusiastic about the Umbrella Group's proposal but would be ready to support it out of pragmatism, to try to reach an agreement whatsoever. Still, they seem to want to keep the Kyoto Protocol alive, but are also requiring emission reduction measures by major emitters among developing countries.

The global emission reduction targets usually considered are derived by the last IPCC report, where it is stated that by 450 ppm of CO2-equivalent, there is 50% possibility of containing global warming below 2°C above pre-industrial levels (which is meant to be a "safety" threshold). New science has pointed out both that 450 ppm could lead to an increase higher than 2°C, and that 2°C warming could already have catastrophic consequences (for example, sea level would rise by up to 1,5 m, due to thermal expansion only, and coral reefs would completely lose their biodiversity). Despite the new findings, all proposed texts, with the exception of AOSIS' one, are pushing for the 450 ppm and 2°C limits. AOSIS wants 350 ppm and 1,5°C. Evo Morales has apparently called for a 1°C limit.

Today we already are at 385 ppm and 1°C above pre-industrial levels. Global average temperature is increasing by 0,2°C per decade.

- From a "legal" perspective, the G77 and China are right. At the 2007 conference in Bali, the participating nations adopted the Bali Road Map, to set up a process to reach a binding agreement here at COP15, with a second commitment period for the Kyoto Protocol, the definition of long term goals and of some decisions on finance, technology, forests. No mention of legally binding emission reduction targets for non-Annex-1 countries, but no doubt about Kyoto's survival. These countries are ready to commit to mitigation actions, but are not willing to have them monitored by the international community. They either rely heavily on their industrial sector for their development (BASIC) or are completely dependent on the use of fossil fuels (OPEC) - some Arab States have gone so far as to deny climate change, also taking advantage of the East Anglia affaire. By protecting Kyoto and Bali they want the developed countries to take their responsibility, while having the freedom for some more years to grow without constraints.

- AOSIS and LDCs are trying to introduce something completely new. Their proposal is justified by the fact that scientists now doubt that the previously accepted limits are adequate to avoid catastrophic consequences, and that they will pay the highest price of climate change. Some of them could disappear completely, all will have to face enormous risks. They don't have enough resources to cope with the impacts, therefore want all nations to take a share of the responsibilities in keeping climate as stable as possible. And they are willing to proceed. Carbon neutrality is certainly easier to achieve for relatively small, mostly tourism-based economies, still it is an extremely significant target.

- EU and Japan are among the most virtuous developed countries. As a target for 2020, Japan has committed to reducing its emissions by 25% on 1990 levels, EU by 20%, promising to go for a 30% reduction, should an agreement be reached which includes the other developed countries and the big developing economies. Otherwise, they'll stick with what they have already committed to. They fear to lose competitivity on the international market. IPCC scenarios suggest that developed countries should cut emissions by 40% above 1990 levels before 2020, to ensure that CO2 stays below 450 ppm, which means that their targets are still too low to be really effective. Moreover, the EU will only comply with Kyoto because it has been enlarged to include less industrialized countries which have allowed for a reduction of its average emissions.

- The Umbrella Group is probably the "guiltiest". Canada and Australia, who both have ratified Kyoto, are a good 20% above their 2012 targets. The US haven't even ratified it, and are not willing to commit to anything more than 3% (below 1990 levels) by 2020. Their Kyoto target was 7% by 2012. Obama can't do much because the US Senate is still discussing the crucial Clean Energy and Security Act (even if he has showed a few times that he would be ready to pursue emission reductions through the action of administrative authorities - such as the Environmental Protection Agency). The system they are now proposing, while pragmatic, doesn't guarantee that the identified critical threshold are not going to be trespassed, and, according to the developing countries, contradicts the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities", because it requires all the countries to be part of the same emission reduction scheme.

Such was the situation by the end of the first week of COP15, after that the negotiations have basically seen no evolution at all. Even the presence of more ministers hasn't really made a difference. Tomorrow is the last day, all Heads of State have arrived, but it really looks like no agreement will be reached. There could be some decision on other issues. The latest news is a proposal by developed countries to raise US$100b annually by 2020 to finance mitigation (and adaptation) in developing countries, if the latter agree to be monitored by an external and transparent authority. But it really looks like more time will be needed to reach an agreement on the targets, on the principles, and on the form of the new post-Kyoto regime. And it's a shame, because it has already started to be too late.

one COP15 hour

snow in Malmo

It is probably not the most surprising thing ever. (Swine) flu isn't either. Imagine all this diverse community (conquistadores and chieftains, slaves and sailors, herders and hunters, teachers and students, nurses, ministers, assistants, deputy assistants of the assistants) breathing and coughing and sneezing its germs all around the place. Everybody is getting sick, except the people who were alread ill when they left their countries. Half of our delegation is, and having to deal with most of the logistics - publications, badges, manning the booth, registration for newcomers - made me sick as well. I'm in my hotel room in Malmo, watching the snowflakes falling.

In the meanwhile

- the second week begun, that's when the important people come, and, most probaly, when decisions are going to be taken. Which means that more and more people are going to be here. The organization is incredibly bad. The Bella Centre can host max 15000 people. There are 7000 UN & technical staff members, 3500 journalists, 22000 NGO & IGO staff, and about 13000 national delegates. 45000 thousand people. The centre is overbooked, and there's no next flight to jump onto. People who still have to register can have to wait outside for registration (barely 5°C, sometimes snowing) for literally 10 hours, (including the Guatemalan Minister of the Environment and, according to rumors, Dr. Pachauri himself - not too sure about this one though) and still not getting registered, since the desk closes at 6 pm, and who's out, well, can try again the morning after.

In order to control the amount of people who access the Centre, we have been distributed a 2nd badge (NGOs are only getting 7000 out of 22000 people, IUCN has 19 for a 45 people delegation), and apparently we'll get a third one for Thursday (1000) and even a fourth one on Friday (90). Imagine 22000 NGO activists catfighting for 90 pieces of paper. Lovely.

There are lots of people coming from half the world away who won't even be able to step into the centre. I wonder if anyone is going to figure out the economical and environmental costs.

Oh, by the way, people still queuing monday evening were spitting at anyone who came out of the Centre.

- monday afternoon I met one of our ministers. Interesting experience, let's put it this way. Pure politics, and an esthetic experience worth a reflection. By far, the most interesting moment was realizing what was written on the badge of the guy who was standing outside the italian delegation office: "secret service". ça va sans dire.

- after having met the minister, I've been to Christiania with a colleague, both with our best clothes on. A beer, cheap food ("all you can pay" kind of dinner), many foreigners, people, no photos and all the rest. We headed back around 10:00. At 10:04 the police surrounded the area and the usual "black bloc" broke out and attacked them. Helicopters, water cannons (can you imagine what a water cannon can do by 0°C?). The people were apparently planning the demonstration for today. 200 arrested - I had the computer of our Senior Advicer for Climate Change with me. My career could have been short. Don't know if there's anything to learn from the experience, though.

- Yesterday morning I've seen the sunrise behind the wind factory off the coast of Copenhagen. It was 9:30. I'm still in love with Scandinavia.

glittrande havets silverne stjärna

Quick update.

- Christmas markets: candies, wool socks, wool pullovers, wool ponchos, wool hats & gloves, mist, fir branch decorations, flowers, very swedish t-shirts, nuts, smoked herrings, sausages, MSC certified fish&chips. and this ->.

- Candles: on the grass in the main square, all around the open-air ice-skating ground, on the trees in the main shopping road, on a conical structure simulating a christmas tree. more lights on the buildings, on the benches, on the bridge. Malmo looks like a peaceful wooden village.

- A girl acting live mannequin for a lingerie shop. Crowds of COP15 participants taking pictures.

- Music: a marching band of punkish-looking youngsters (with cheerleaders and banjo) playing swing and dixieland - absolutely entertaining. a cappella choir singing traditional Santa Lucia songs from the balcony of what I think is the town hall. A Peruvian band playbacking "el condor pasa" over and over again (must be some kind of extreme sport). 6 girls with candles revisiting traditional christmas carols to protest again COP15, and the world leaders, and the UN. Everything very spontaneous. The musicians were clearly having fun (except the Peruvians, I reckon), and the public was enjoying it.

What I learned today.

- The music that should be made is the one 3-year old children like to listen to.

- If you want to ask a live mannequin, you'd better be quick. The shop might close.

prospero è il vento

End of week 1

Most of this entry has been written while we were locked in the Bella Centre. Protestors marching outside were apparently blocking the exit.

This blog doesn't seem such a good idea when you realize you don't even have the time to check at what time SSC Napoli's next match is. But it's Sunday and I'm taking a day off - with apologies to the third edition of the Forest Day. This place is exhausting.

Highlights of the last days:

- 3 treemen, polar bears, 2 meter tall chickens, dogs standing on two legs.

- Indios, North-American natives, Samis, Fulanis, other non identified indigenous peoples.

- outside the Bella Centre Greenpeace activists serve free coffee every morning.

- outside the Bella Centre right behind the Greenpeace activists a man serves "wind-powered coffee".

- outside the Bella Centre, adepts of the Supreme Master distribute "my life with the animals", describing (i guess) the role of animals in the Supreme Master's life. Also available (for experts only): "my life with the birds" and "my life with the dogs".

- the queue to get in the centre at 9:20 was 25 minutes long, including airport-like metal detectors, "please take a sip of this liquid" and a quick computer check to make sure your face is really yours.

- flash mobs everywhere. red people for "pay the climate debt", green for "seal the deal", blue for "350 ppm", orange I'm not sure.

- next week ministers and heads of State will be here - for security reasons every organization will only be allowed to attend with a part of its delegates. The system will be enforced distributing a second type of badge. Now we have the normal one, the one we have to show on the train to get the ride for free, the extra one, plus the card to get in the hotel. I always have the impression I'm losing something.

- speaking of badges, yesterday evening the traditional NGO party. I sweated so much my badge got corroded while dancing balkan music. Unfortunately, almost no IUCN people came - seeing your boss getting wasted is a significant experience.

Plans for today:

Lucia celebration in Malmo. Basically a procession of virgins dressed in white with candles on their head singing "Santa Lucia" (venite all'agile barchetta mia etc) in a slightly revisited version. The idea is that Lucia brings back the light after the darkest period of the year - which is not too dark here, by the way. A pagan feast with neapolitan sailor songs to celebrate a sicilian saint. The Lord's ways are not our ways, for sure.

43 minutes overdue

Day one and a half, this place starts getting crowded.

From behind a booth you could almost observe this small city pass by. Sadly you're way too busy to make it a full-time activity. You can't avoid noticing some things, though. So, in order of appearance, here are today's highlights:

1) A dozen outlook contacts finally have a face;

2) The guy at the telephone shop looks at me suspiciously. He must think somebody who just asked him the 10th sim card in barely a couple of days must have a bomb hidden underneath his coat, and it's most probably going to use a phone to detonate it (he just can't decide which number he should use);

3) I've spotted 11 people who obviously had absolutely nothing to do (since I was actually working I could have missed some);

4) There's a modified bike going around for apple distribution;

5) The enormous success of the gender bags - picture: box full of colorful bag-in-a-bag's, people passing by, person asking "may I take 3, two for my other friends?", the same person asking "by the way, what's this?";

6) To whom it may concern in IUCN comms team: our 250cm-high-banner has an african guy watering a non-endemic, water-intensive tree on it. More specimens to be seen on the background;

7) Strange as it may seem, you start recognizing faces;

8) The enormous success of the gender bags/2 - picture: guy carrying around publications a normal human being couldn't read before COP 22 (to be held at the Everest Base Camp due to sea-level rise). "uh, finally something to stuff this stuff in";

And it's only 4 pm.

I'm now getting spiritually ready for my next task. Divide what was once together. Join what was once divided. In other words, I have to restaple 250 REDD position papers. Ah, the beauty of small, serial, repetitive gestures.

Every now and then I get a thrill behind my back. As if something was really going to happen soon, as if we were all in the right place. If not now, when?

The content of this entry does not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of IUCN. We have designated spokepersons for that.